I will attempt to address this issue from a critical and objective point of view. For four consecutive years, a global deficit of between 15 and 20 million bags has been generated.
Brazil, the world's leading producer of Arabica coffee, faces a deficit of five million bags due to the worst drought in 50 years. And Vietnam, the largest exporter of Robusta coffee, has suffered droughts and floods that have affected production.
Coffee continues to break records. Supply and demand are out of sync. And projections for the 2025 and 2026 harvests, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, indicate that global stocks could fall to their second-lowest level in 65 years.
The price increase could persist in the long term due to structural factors such as climate change and increased demand. This will ultimately result in the price increase being passed on to the end consumer.
It is only fair that farming families can sell their produce at a better price. In the immediate future, they will invest part of the profit in new varieties and cultivation techniques that will allow them to secure supply and, consequently, align supply with demand.
Today, a coffee drink at a popular coffee chain costs around 6 euros. Meanwhile, a good coffee, prepared with meticulous care using the best equipment and purified water, costs half that. We need to consciously consider what we consume. Only then will we understand true fairness.
At Familia Osorio, we work directly with producers and cooperatives at the source, selecting and purchasing FOB coffees to eliminate intermediaries. We believe that direct trade is the only way to guarantee the best cup of coffee at the best price. Combating price volatility through quality differentiation is the key strategy, as specialty coffee consumers value the best of each origin, variety, and process over a mediocre cup.
As Howard Schultz, owner of Starbucks, said, coffee is an affordable luxury.
Ivan Osorio
Head of Beans
